Warren Sharp
FOX Sports activities NFL Author
of this week NFL Slate has some nice matches in retailer, together with the Rams-Seahawks. FOX and FOX Sports Application.
I’ve run my fashions to convey you my favourite betting advantages and predictions for Week 18 of the season. My aim on this weekly column is to at all times offer you nuggets you did not know earlier than studying this piece.
Because the playoff desk narrows, let’s check out my favourite sides of the week (alternatives FOX Betting).
Chiefs dethroned at high of Nick’s Tiers + Payments & 49ers Rise into Week 18
Nick lists all 32 groups within the NFL, together with the beloved Kanas Metropolis Chiefs, NFC Tremendous Bowl choice San Francisco 49ers, and rival Buffalo Payments.
chefs additionally Raiders (16:30, ABC/ESPN)
Final week the Raiders narrowly misplaced 49’s.
The groups are 0-14 straight (SU) and 3-10-1 towards type (ATS) within the week after enjoying with the 49ers. The 49ers type undoubtedly wears out your defenses, and on protection, their physicality within the trenches drains your offensive line greater than most opponents can.
However there are causes to be optimistic for the Raiders.
QB who simply began final week Jarrett Stidham He threw 24% of his passes over 20 yards.
This was the very best fee any QB has ever thrown the ball deep up to now week.
And so forth. If greater than 20 yards go by way of the decrease court docket, the KC protection standings are:
- twenty fourth in EPA/att (+0.53)
- twenty fourth (13.5) in YPA
- twenty seventh in TD/INT ratio (1.7)
These Raiders’ offense is considerably more healthy with their comeback. Hunter Renfrow and darren waller. Make no mistake, this crime goes like this: dadante adams goes, however having different choices undoubtedly helps Raiders reap the benefits of the passing assault.
This is a wonderful shopping for level for the Raiders as a result of they’ve executed nothing however play high 10 protection within the 49ers within the final three weeks. patriots and steelworkers. Now, the Twenty third-placed Chiefs, enjoying the fifth best program of opposing offenses this yr, will play their final 10 defenses.
In the meantime, the Raiders’ offense performed the fifth hardest defensive program.
And now Josh McDaniels has despatched Derek Carr As they wrap up, he appears to wish to show that Carr, not McDaniels, is the issue on this offense. The passing sport was rather more aggressive and I assure the McDaniels will clear the room with offensive play calls within the remaining sport of 2022.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Chiefs will face the Thirty first-placed Raiders protection enjoying the league’s best opponent offensive program, which implies it is extraordinarily troublesome to rank so poorly towards such a straightforward program.
The Raiders performed solely three offenses all yr, excluding the Chiefs, who ranked common or higher:
- 37 factors to the 49ers
- 34 factors allowed sea hawks
- 27 factors allowed jaguars
Along with the 30 factors awarded to the Chiefs earlier this season.
patrick mahomes It is simply 429 yards behind the all-time report for passing distance, and I absolutely hope the Chiefs will go early and sometimes towards these fearsome Raiders. I guess on it at 50 factors and although I do not see sufficient worth at 53 factors, I am nonetheless leaning and probably going over 26.5 within the first half.
The place do the Dallas Cowboys land in Colin’s Tremendous Bowl Balloon?
Watch as Dallas explains the place he stands within the standings and whether or not he believes in Dak Prescott’s means to make a deep playoff run.
chargers additionally broncos (16:25, CBS)
This sport is so simple as they arrive by way of betting. Name it one of many some ways the NFL has fully screwed up the Week 18 schedule.
Initially, the will to delay saying the beginning instances of the video games was because of the want to group the affecting video games into the identical time slot in order that neither staff determined to line up their beginning gamers earlier than kick-off.
The NFL failed miserably.
Main the Chiefs sport Bills Buffalo can not take 1st place if the Chiefs win, and buffalo could strategy his sport in another way towards the Chiefs. patriots.
by enjoying ravens The sport earlier than the Chargers sport, if Baltimore loses, the Chargers will know in the event that they’re locked into the very best seeded (seed 5) potential. And if the weak seven-point Ravens lose bengalsit appears doubtless on account of unfold, Chargers might be sitting on all the most important gamers.
The Chargers have been the three.5 factors favourite on Wednesday morning. Nonetheless, at 3 PM ET, the NFL introduced that the Ravens-Bengals sport will likely be performed at 1 PM as an alternative of 4:25 PM (concurrently the Chargers sport). Inside 45 minutes of this announcement, the Chargers line went from scoring 3.5 factors towards the Broncos to a pick-em sport. And in one other 45 minutes, the Broncos have been the two.5-point favorite.
Specifically, I used to be in a position to make a number of correlated bets which are at present fairly +EV. First, I transferred the Bengals cash line to the Broncos cash line. If the Bengals win, the Chargers relaxation and supply a neater manner for the Broncos to win. As soon as the Broncos line began to maneuver, I taunted the Broncos by way of the third and seventh place and paired them up with the third place Bengals.
Sadly, the intense worth is not the identical, however the cash line parlay remains to be related and generally is a guess with +EV.
ravens additionally bengals (13:00, CBS)
See evaluation and recommendation above.
This sport in all probability would not see any staff resting their beginning gamers, however there’s an fascinating dilemma.
The next are the NFL’s Bengals vs. It assumes that the Payments doesn’t proceed the sport and makes use of the win proportion to rank the groups for the AFC playoffs.
If the Payments beat the Patriots to 2nd place, that may lock the Bengals into third place whatever the consequence of this match.
And in a singular case, the Bengals would face the Ravens within the #3 sequence within the first spherical of the playoffs, which might be the #6 sequence.
(Observe that the one manner the above situation will not occur is that if the Ravens win is paired with the Chargers loss.)
So these groups will probably play once more this week and subsequent week.
It could be an ungainly scenario for certain, and would doubtless trigger each groups to make some changes to their technique, as he realizes that revealing an excessive amount of of their greatest sport plans will enable their opponent to make changes for the playoff sport.
The 2 groups confronted off in a 19-17 Ravens win at Baltimore earlier this season. The sport was a serious revenge level for the Ravens, which allowed huge 41-point losses to the Bengals in each video games in 2021.
It could be tempting to take a look at the underside line if there’s an opportunity both staff will determine to limit the offensive sport plan a bit.
How the Seahawks formulate, future plans at Jets QB
Colin Cowherd evaluates each groups, explaining Seattle’s system and what the Jets should do to advance their QB place.
coaches additionally sea hawks (16:25, FOX and FOX Sports Application)
Because of the nature of this sport, the road naturally inflates of their favour, because the Seahawks should win with a view to qualify for the playoffs.
Particularly for the reason that Rams have already been eradicated from the playoffs.
However after the Rams have been on 4-0 ATS of their final 4 video games towards the Seahawks and a tricky sport that has improved each defensively and offensively towards a rising Chargers staff, the Rams could also be in a strong place to help their weaker position. .
And I can assure the outdated Seahawk bobby wagner He desires nothing greater than to maintain his outdated staff out of the playoffs.
Coaches’ Cam Akers He is working extraordinarily effectively and has averaged 5.7 YPC within the final three video games. And the Seahawks run protection proved problematic at instances.
However that pales compared to the Rams run protection, which has allowed the Chargers a season-high 192 speeding yards, who have not coached usually and have allowed greater than 100 speeding yards in every of their final 4 video games. after beforehand permitting 100 racecourses solely 4 instances this yr.
Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. He’s the founding father of Sharp Soccer Evaluation and has labored as a guide for league franchises, and has beforehand contributed to ESPN and The Ringer, amongst different channels. He studied engineering earlier than utilizing his statistical intelligence to create predictive soccer fashions. You’ll be able to observe Warren on Twitter. @SharpFootball.
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